Updates on the capital markets, money markets, crypto, the global economy, and central bank policy — analyzed by our team.
A new chapter: the U.S. and Iran formally signed a peace agreement in Geneva on June 19, 2026 — the Strait of Hormuz immediately reopened to commercial traffic, unlocking ~20% of global oil flows. WTI has plunged 17% from $90.55 on June 10 to $75.34. Brent fell below $80 for the first time since March. U.S. markets are closed for Juneteenth...
Read full story →COMEX gold (GC=F) tumbled 5.1% from the previous close of $4,358.90 to $4,136/oz, pressured by the dollar index surging above 100.96 — a 13-month high. Investors dumped safe-haven assets as markets digested the Fed's hawkish policy stance.
WTI crude (CL=F) plunged 5.4% from $76.79 to $72.64/barrel, following the US-Iran peace deal signed in Geneva on June 19, signaling full Hormuz Strait reopening within 30 days. Markets expect a significant increase in global oil supply.
The SET Index fell 2.0% from 1,587.07 to close at 1,555.62 points, tracking broader Asian equity declines. The sell-off was driven by a strengthening dollar and sharp drops in commodity prices.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.87% from 100.09 to 100.96 — its highest level since May 2025, bolstered by the latest FOMC Dot Plot signaling a hawkish tilt with 9 of 18 members projecting rate hikes before year-end.
The Thai Baht weakened to 32.94 per US dollar (per ER-API, as of 00:02 UTC), down from 32.58 on Friday, pressured by the dollar index surging to 100.96. Other Asian currencies also depreciated, with the yen and yuan declining in tandem.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) declined 0.9% from $63,540.84 to $62,935, still pressured by broadly cautious market sentiment following the hawkish FOMC signal. This comes despite reports that Morgan Stanley accumulated over 4,000 BTC during this downturn.
Oil prices stabilized after the Iran peace deal with WTI near $77 and Brent around $80. Gold fell for a third straight week to $4,164 as the dollar hit a 13-month high. Asian stocks surged — Nikkei closed at a record high (+8.5% weekly), KOSPI gained 15.3% for the week. U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth. Next week: focus returns to inflation data and FOMC fallout.
Spot gold dropped 1.1% to $4,163.93/oz on Friday, heading for a third consecutive weekly decline. Goldman Sachs cut its December 2026 gold target to $4,900 from $5,400, no longer expecting a Fed rate cut this year. Silver fell 2.2% to $64.36, platinum lost 1.9% to $1,663. The resurgent dollar, powered by the hawkish FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh, continues to pressure precious metals.
The SET Index closed at 1,585.06, down 2.01 points (-0.13%), moving in a 1,583-1,596 range. Trading value reached 68.1 billion THB. A bright spot: foreign investors turned net buyers with 2,056 million THB in purchases — a sharp reversal from recent sessions. Top traded stocks: DELTA (346 THB), SCB (142 THB), KTB (36.50 THB). The market remains supported by Thailand's strong Q1 GDP of 2.8% and the government's stimulus package.
BTC traded at $63,176 (-1.25% in 24h) with total crypto market cap at $1.27 trillion. Despite the downtrend, Morgan Stanley has been buying Bitcoin on dips over the past week, with total holdings surpassing 4,000 BTC. The Wall Street giant's spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) continues to attract institutional flows with the lowest fee in the market at 0.14%. On-chain data shows solid buying interest in the $59,000-$67,000 range.
Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at a record high for the fifth straight session (+0.8% daily, +8.5% weekly), driven by falling oil prices and a weaker yen boosting export earnings. South Korea's KOSPI surged 3.1% (+15.3% weekly). The rally reflects relief that the Iran peace deal is reducing energy costs and inflation expectations across Asia. China and Hong Kong markets were closed for Dragon Boat Festival.
CLICX Bank, Thailand's first virtual bank, officially launched its mobile app on June 19. The joint venture between Krungthai Bank (KTB, 41%), AIS (39%), and PTT OR (20%) targets the 63% of Thais underserved by traditional banking. With no physical branches, CLICX leverages AI-driven credit assessment and behavioral data to offer personalized loans, savings, and financial products — starting with customizable 7-digit account numbers.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged to 100.665, its highest level since May 2025, driven by the hawkish FOMC dot plot showing 9 officials projecting a rate hike by year-end. EUR/USD slipped to 1.145, GBP/USD to 1.321. USD/THB eased to 32.58 from the near-year high of 32.79 as the Iran peace deal reduced risk premiums. The yen weakened past 160/USD as the wide U.S.-Japan rate gap persists.
USD/THB traded at 32.79, near the year's high of 32.97 (June 10). The dollar has gained 4.45% in 2026 on elevated U.S. rates, but the Iran peace deal could pressure the greenback medium-term if oil continues to fall.
WTI crude closed at $75.34/bbl, down $5.40 (-6.69%) on the day, marking a 4-session losing streak from a June 10 high of $90.55. Brent fell below $80 for the first time since March to $78.45. Three Iranian supertankers carrying 4.8M barrels have already departed.
BTC opened at $64,450 then slid to $63,980 (-1.8%) despite positive Iran peace-deal news. Investors rotated into equities after the Fed's hawkish signal. Total crypto market down 1.9%. ETH trades at $1,744.
President Trump and Iran's leadership signed a 60-day ceasefire MoU in Geneva, Switzerland, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to resume normal traffic — unlocking Iranian oil exports and lifting some sanctions. The U.S. will release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
Spot gold bounced back from post-FOMC volatility to $4,337/oz, gaining $28.72 (+0.67%), supported by Iran peace-deal optimism reducing inflation risk. JPMorgan sees average gold at $6,000 in Q4 2026 — analysts warn volatility remains elevated.
Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC ended with a 12-0 unanimous hold, but the new dot plot shocked: 9 of 18 officials project a rate hike by year-end. The median 2026 year-end rate rose from 3.4% to 3.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.43% from 4.54% a week ago.
Spot gold experienced extreme volatility as the FOMC's hawkish dot plot surprised markets. Prices climbed to $4,382 then plunged to $4,219 before recovering above $4,320 in early Asian trade.
BTC declined alongside risk assets after the FOMC signaled potential rate hikes. Total crypto market cap shrank 1.9% to $2.3 trillion. ETH fell 1.6% to $1,755.
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC ended with a unanimous hold, but the new dot plot showed 9 officials projecting a rate hike before end-2026 — the median year-end rate projection rose from 3.4% to 3.8%.
Wall Street sold off sharply. S&P 500 closed at 7,431 (-1.21%), Nasdaq fell 1.34%, Dow dropped 507 points (-0.97%) to 51,492. Markets now pricing a rate hike by October 2026.
The U.S. and Iran are expected to sign a peace agreement on June 19 in Switzerland, including a 30-day timeline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If successful, it would ease oil price pressures.
Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting after Senate confirmation (54-45). CME FedWatch shows 97% probability of a hold. Analysts expect the committee may remove the "easing bias" from its statement — the new dot plot will be closely watched.
